now what?

It was finally announced yesterday that Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa died.

It's actually kind of strange that it still feels like such a shock, considering co-workers (ok, Rebecca) and I were pretty convinced that he's been (definitely brain) dead since the "mistaken" report of death 2 months ago from a stroke at the African Union summit in Cairo. Since that announcement in June - which was promptly denied by the vice president and state-controlled media who then spouted stories that he was doing well and on the mend for the subsequent 2 weeks before Zambian society, including myself, put this issue ("the president is dead??") on the back burner and settled back into a complacent routine of things - Mwanawasa has been in a Paris hospital, kept strictly under wraps by the government and media.

Two lessons learned during this bizarre 2-month absence of the president:

1. The difference between basically nothing getting done due to poor infrastructure and lack of resources with and without a president was not so discernable, other than the general, slow melee which ensued the afternoon on which Mwanawasa's faux-death was announced.
2. State-controlled media is incredibly frustrating, and came to really appreciate the dogged tenacity of American media to root out information and capitalize on its dissemination. Even if this often garners criticism due to sensationalism or bias, it would have been better than the government-engineered (and clearly false) messages of the president's stable, improving health in the newspaper, and the deliberate and complete absence of any other news updates or investigation taking place on television, radio, or internet. There was a total vacuum of information, and it was a new feeling to find myself without any tools for finding out more. It was also a bizarre experience seeing the news of Mwanawasa's "good and improving" health. Did the government really think that the people were naive enough to buy this baloney in the face of Mwanawasa's existing bad health and subsequent stroke which required an airlifting to Paris and multiple surgeries? Or did people believe it, being used to a lack of any information other than what is fed through the government-regulated 3 national newspapers and 2 television stations?

From talking to co-workers, it seemed like people were well aware that Mwanawasa, even if he would survive his stroke, would never be fit enough to be president again; however - disturbingly, as happens all the time in the course of work with the Ministry of Health - people shrugged their shoulders, asked resignedly "Well, what are we supposed to do?" and waited.

So life progressed as usual (inefficiently), and Mwanawasa's bad health receded into the background as, presumably, MMD - Movement for Multiparty Democracy, his political party - got their act together to try and appoint a new party leader. Nope. Although of course MMD was unwilling to admit Mwanawasa's (most likely brain) death and accede political power to be reassigned through a mandatory by-election within 90 days, they were holding onto the stability of the tenuous, lame-duck leadership in an attempt to pass a parliamentary act which would have increased the personal emoluments (salaries) for Parliament and Cabinet members. An act which has yet to be passed and, now in the face of impending leadership change, most likely will never be.

So what now?

Protocol is being put to the test. 7 national days of mourning involving flags at half-mast and no official state trips will be followed by the first burial of a Zambian president. (Mwanawasa was Zambia's 3rd president, and neither of the first 2 have died yet.) The constitution mandates that the Chief Justice is now in power for 90 days, by the end of which a presidential election must take place to select a new national leader. The next in line is a real toss-up. People I've talked to said it's no certainty that MMD will stay in power, especially as they are in a mild state of chaos without a successor to Mwanawasa's leadership. Brian Chituwo, the current Minister of Health, is being suggested, but Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) or a representative of Michael Sata's Patriotic Front party are considered just as likely.

Presidential change means a change in the leadership of all the different ministries and Cabinet. (But unlikely any violence nor civil unrest - Zambians are pretty great in this way.) Although Chiku, my co-worker, tells me that this high level of leadership change won't have a great deal of effect on our work, I can't help of cringe at the loss of continuity in institutional memory and high-level commitment to the innumerable development projects and multi- and bilateral partnerships that are tenuously trying to build up Zambia's social, economic, and political systems. In a process of settling into new leadership that many say will "only take until probably... December," it seems like a huge step backwards when increases in numbers of HIV+ people on ARVs, graduates from health institutions to man the severely under-resourced clinics, and general government coordination are already slow and painful victories.

And Africa also lost, for all his shortcomings, a chair of the South African Development Community (SADC) who boldly spoke out against Robert Mugabe and urged neighbors to push for protection of human rights and political free will in Zimbabwe.

Work here, after an hour or 2 of a daze yesterday afternoon, has surprisingly settled quickly back into the regular routine. As usual, just waiting to see what happens next.